The Rams and Jaguars will square off at London’s Wembley Stadium on Sunday, October 19. With both teams vying to maintain momentum, this neutral-site game projects to be tight. The prediction analysis leans toward Jacksonville covering in a lower-scoring affair, especially if the Rams are without their top receiver, Puka Nacua.

Key insights from Covers

rams vs jaguars
source: covers.com
  1. Puka Nacua Injury Impact

    • Nacua led the NFL in targets and PFF receiving grade before his ankle injury.

    • His absence makes game-planning for the Rams easier, lowering their offensive threat.

  2. Defensive Strengths

    • Rams:

      • 3rd-fewest yards allowed.

      • 4th-lowest EPA per play.

      • 3rd-fewest points allowed (18.3 per game).

    • Jaguars:

      • 5th-lowest EPA per play allowed.

      • Above average in run defense (2nd-lowest rushing success rate).

  3. International Experience Advantage

    • Jaguars: 13 games played internationally since 2013.

    • Rams: Only 3 games in Europe, last in 2019.

    • Familiarity with travel and schedule changes gives Jacksonville a subtle edge.
Market Odds Notes
Spread Jaguars +3 (-115) Jacksonville projected to cover
Moneyline Rams -154 / Jaguars +130 Rams still narrow favorites
Total (O/U) 45.5 Lean: Under

Covers’ Game Expectation

Covers expects a low-scoring, defensive matchup, shaped by:

  • The Rams’ reliance on their running game due to Nacua’s absence.

  • Both teams’ top-5 defensive efficiency metrics (EPA and points allowed).

  • Prior Rams game results (e.g., 14-9 in Week 1, 17-3 in Week 6) showing a pattern of tight, defensive football.

Summary Verdict

Prediction Reasoning
Spread Pick: Jaguars +3 Better defensive form and international familiarity
Total Pick: Under 45.5 Both defenses in top-five by EPA; limited offensive firepower expected
Moneyline Insight Rams still slight favorites but vulnerable without Nacua

Betting Insights from USA Today

usa today scaled
source: usatoday.com
  • Rams favored by 3 points according to BetMGM.

  • Nacua’s injury could cause the line to shift down by a couple of points.

  • Jacksonville has more international experience, having played regularly in London since 2013 (except 2020).

  • Los Angeles hasn’t played in Europe since 2019.

  • The Rams’ offense may lean heavier on the run game if Nacua sits out.
Source Pick Key Insight
The Athletic Rams cover (-3) Jaguars’ sluggish Week 6 in Seattle may better represent their form than their win over Kansas City. Bettors are advised to wait for confirmation on Puka Nacua’s injury before wagering.
Covers.com Jaguars +3 Los Angeles likely without Nacua, their top receiver. Jacksonville’s defensive consistency and extensive international experience (13 games since 2013) give them an advantage.

References (full list)

Covers – Rams vs Jaguars Week 7 predictions, betting odds, and early leans
USA Today – NFL Week 7 game picks, predictions, and odds.