Buffalo Bills vs Atlanta Falcons Prediction- Oct 13, 2025

Short Summary

The Buffalo Bills travel to Atlanta to take on the Falcons in a Monday Night Football slot. Buffalo, coming off a tough home loss, enter as favorites with strong offensive and defensive metrics. Atlanta, after a bye week and leading the league in defensive DVOA, will aim to leverage their rushing attack and home-field advantage. The matchup hinges on how well the Falcons can pressure Josh Allen, slow James Cook, and execute on the ground.

Betting Insights from USA Today

The Buffalo Bills (4-1) travel to face the Atlanta Falcons (2-2) at Mercedes-Benz Stadium for a Week 6 Monday night matchup. Despite a surprising loss to New England in Week 5, Buffalo enters as a 4.5-point favorite across most sportsbooks, while Atlanta looks to capitalize on home-field advantage after a bye week. USA TODAY’s expert panel unanimously sides with the Bills to bounce back against an inconsistent Falcons squad.

Updated Injury Report 

Betting Insights from Falcoholic 

1. Buffalo’s Evolution

• The Bills have overhauled much of their roster since 2021 — retaining only Josh Allen, Dion Dawkins, Reggie Gilliam, Ed Oliver, Matt Milano, and Taron Johnson from their core.
• Free-agent additions Joey Bosa (DL) and Joshua Palmer (WR) have added depth, though several newcomers like Larry Ogunjobi and Michael Hoecht are suspended or on IR.
• Rookie TE Jackson Hawes is a major blocking asset and part of Buffalo’s improved run-heavy approach.

2. Bills’ Strengths

• Josh Allen is completing 70% of passes with a 9 TD / 2 INT ratio and 212 rushing yards (3 TDs).
• James Cook ranks second in the NFL in both rushing yards (450) and touchdowns (5), averaging 5 YPC.
• Buffalo’s defense has 13 sacks, 11 batted passes, and ranks top 10 in yards allowed and passing touchdowns surrendered.
• Veteran Matt Prater has revived their special teams, converting 91% of his kicks.

3. Atlanta’s Opportunities

• Falcons are 7–1 on Monday Night Football since 2015 — a notable stat in primetime play.
• Their rushing attack (Bijan Robinson + elite O-line) is the clearest advantage, especially against Buffalo’s 145.6 rush YPG allowed and 7 rushing TDs conceded (4th worst in NFL).
• Atlanta must lean heavily on play action and deep shots to exploit Buffalo’s weaker secondary.
• Michael Penix Jr. must stay poised — his past struggles under pressure could be costly against Buffalo’s disruptive pass rush.

4. Key Defensive Focus for Atlanta

• Pressure Josh Allen — his completion rate drops from 70% to 47.4% when pressured (PFF).
• Limit James Cook’s production; preventing chunk runs is vital.
• Force turnovers and win time of possession through extended ground drives.

Betting Insights from Pickdawgz

The Bills enter Week 6 at 4–1, coming off a close 23–20 loss to the Patriots, while the Falcons are 2–2 after surviving a 34–27 win over Washington. Buffalo remains one of the NFL’s most complete teams — elite offensively and disciplined in time of possession — whereas Atlanta continues to rely on its rushing attack and young QB Michael Penix Jr.’s development.

Buffalo Bills Key Insights

• Strong Start Despite Loss: Buffalo lost narrowly to NE due to turnovers (3–1 margin) but still outgained them in total yardage.
• Elite Offense: Averaging 30.6 PPG, one of the league’s best.
• Josh Allen’s Form:
  • 22/31 for 253 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT vs NE.
  • Also 53 rushing yards — continues to lead dual-threat offenses.
  • Has scored 2+ TDs in 3 of last 4 vs NFC teams.
• Weapons:
  • Dalton Kincaid (TE) – 287 YDS, 3 TD.
  • James Cook – 450 rushing YDS, 5 TDs; scored in 8 of last 9 games.
• Defensive Presence:
  • 4 sacks & 6 TFL vs NE.
  • Joey Bosa leads NFL with 8 QB hurries.
• Trends:
  • 8–1 in October games vs NFC.
  • 4–0 ATS after a loss.
  • First-half winners in 5 of last 6 Monday games.

Atlanta Falcons Key Insights

• Recent Win: Beat Washington 34–27 after nearly blowing a 15-point lead.
• Michael Penix Jr.: Efficient outing (20/26, 313 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT).
• Bijan Robinson:
  • 75 rushing YDS + 1 TD vs WAS.
  • Has 111+ total yards in last 5 home games.
  • Scored in 5 straight home games.
• Drake London: 110 YDS, 1 TD; key vertical threat.
• Defense:
  • Allowed 294 total YDS to Washington, but pressure inconsistent.
  • Still ranks 1st in NFL in passing yards allowed (135.0 YPG).
• Trends:
  • 0–8 in last 8 as underdogs following a win.
  • Failed to cover in last 7 in same situation.
  • Home underdog totals have gone UNDER in last 7.

Prop & Trend Highlights

Bills Player Trends

• Josh Allen:
  • 43+ rushing YDS in 7 of last 8 road games as favorite.
  • 253+ passing YDS in 5 of last 6 October games.
• James Cook: TD in 8 of last 9.
• Josh Palmer: 24+ receiving YDS in 10 straight October games as favorite.
• Buffalo’s defense ranks top 5 in sacks and QB pressure rate.

Falcons Player Trends

• Bijan Robinson:
  • TD in 5 straight home games.
  • 111+ total YDS in each of last 5.
• Michael Penix Jr.: 298+ passing YDS in 3 straight home games.
• Kyle Pitts: 41+ receiving YDS in 7 of last 8 after home win.
• Tyler Allgeier: 32+ rushing YDS in 6 of last 7 as home underdog.

Expert Betting Take

Buffalo should bounce back strongly after the New England loss. The offense remains dominant, averaging 30+ PPG in 4 of 5 games, and their defense creates constant pressure.

Atlanta’s defense excels against the pass but struggles against power-running teams — a bad matchup against James Cook and Josh Allen’s dual-threat ability.

VegasInsider projects the Bills to cover on the road, with the total leaning UNDER based on historical trends.

References Mentioned in the Articles

• The USA today article references Pro Football Focus data (Allen’s completion %, performance under pressure) and statistics on the Bills’ run defense and pass rush.
• Falcoholic betting preview cites trends (Over/Under, ATS records, injury reports) and uses FanDuel lines.
• Pickdawgz mention probability projections.