This matchup features the struggling New Orleans Saints (1–5) on the road against a Bears team riding modest momentum. In their upset-focused piece, SI argues that despite their record, the Saints are undervalued. Spencer Rattler has shown flashes at quarterback, and their run defense is among the better units in the league (allowing 3.8 yards per carry). The Bears, by contrast, rank poorly in metrics like Net Yards per Play, DVOA, offensive success rate, and opponent success rate. SI’s upset pick is the Saints to win outright in Chicago.
Meanwhile, NBC Sports offers a fuller betting breakdown:
Moneyline: Saints +185, Bears –225
Spread: Bears –4.5
Total (Over/Under): 46.5 points
Key insights from Si
source: Stats insider
After correctly calling two upsets in Week 6, the SI Betting Team returns with five new underdog picks for Week 7. Each expert highlights a potential upset based on team weaknesses, key performances, and betting value.
Analyst
Matchup & Odds
Key Analysis / Reasoning
Clare Brennan
Colts (+112) vs. Chargers
Colts’ rushing duo of Daniel Jones and Jonathan Taylor can exploit a Chargers defense allowing 124.2 rush yards per game. Taylor is coming off a 123-yard, 1 TD performance.
Matt Verderame
Dolphins (+126) vs. Browns
Browns’ offense is struggling — no 20+ point games all season. Rookie QB Dillon Gabriel starts for Cleveland. Miami’s offense could capitalize despite defensive flaws.
Gilberto Manzano
Texans (+150) vs. Seahawks
Texans’ defense looks strong post-bye week. C.J. Stroud improving, while Seahawks underperform at home (Coach Macdonald 4–8 home record).
Iain MacMillan
Saints (+200) vs. Bears
Saints better than record shows — Spencer Rattler showing promise. Defense allows just 3.8 yards per carry. Bears’ metrics weak (30th Net Yards per Play, 21st DVOA, 23rd Off Success Rate). Prediction: Saints win outright.
Peter Dewey
Cowboys (+108) vs. Commanders
Cowboys’ offense ranks 2nd in EPA/Play. Despite poor defense, Dak Prescott’s 44–18–1 home record supports Dallas as a live underdog.
Highlighted Pick: Saints (+200) vs. Bears
Analyst: Iain MacMillan
Why It’s Notable: Despite being 1–5, New Orleans’ run defense and QB flashes make them a strong upset candidate. Chicago’s efficiency metrics rank near the bottom of the league, signaling potential for a Saints road win.
Verdict: MacMillan confidently picks Saints to beat Bears outright.
Key Insights from NBC Sports
source: sports chat place
The Week 7 clash between the Chicago Bears (3-2) and the New Orleans Saints (1-5) brings multiple storylines — from coaching debuts to quarterback reunions. NBC Sports covers betting odds, team trends, injury updates, and expert picks for the matchup at Soldier Field.
Key Storylines
Storyline
Details
Bears’ Momentum
First-year coach Ben Johnson has guided Chicago to three straight wins, pushing the Bears above .500 for the first time since 2018.
QB Reunion
Caleb Williams (Bears) and Spencer Rattler (Saints) were teammates at Oklahoma in 2021 before Williams replaced Rattler as QB1. Both later transferred.
Saints’ Rebuild
Under rookie head coach Kellen Moore, the Saints are 1–5 and trying to avoid their worst seven-game start since 1999.
QB Evaluation
Long-term priority for New Orleans is determining if Rattler can be their franchise QB beyond 2025.
• Won 7 straight vs Bears • 3–7 ATS last 10 as underdog • Last 3 road games went OVER • Key injuries: RB Alvin Kamara (ankle), CB Isaac Yiadom (hamstring).
Bears
• Haven’t won 4 straight since 2018 • QB Williams on pace for 4,008 yds — no Bears QB has ever hit 4,000 in a season • Key injuries: WR DJ Moore, RB D’Andre Swift, PK Cairo Santos.
Expert Best Bet (Rotoworld / NBC Sports)
Analyst
Pick
Line / Odds
Rationale
Drew Dinsick (@whale_capper)
Saints +5.5 (–108)
DraftKings
Bears are on a short week and still struggling defensively. Rattler remains undervalued, and the fair spread should be closer to –3. New Orleans defense can keep this within one score.
